We are tracking tropical waves along 33 west, south of 20 north, along 61 west, south of 20 north and along 72 west, south of 22 north. All waves are moving to the west at an average speed of 10-15 knots or about 5 degrees longitude per day. The wave along 72 west is encountering strong shear and will not be able to organize as it moves west. The wave along 61 west is also encountering shear. However, it is a larger wave and it might survive the strongest shear. But, it too will have a tough time organizing any time soon. An upper-level disturbance that caused flooding rainfall in the Houston, Texas, area is over land. But, it has caused a large area of rain and thunderstorms along the southeastern Texas coast. This activity should move southwest and will not have a chance to break away and move out over the open waters of the Gulf. Another upper-level system extends into the western Atlantic, east of the northern Bahamas. This upper-level system is enhancing clouds, showers and thunderstorms over the northern Bahamas. This complex weather system might have some chance to organize during the middle and latter part of this week as the strong shear relaxes over that region of the Atlantic. Some computer model output is suggesting there will be at least an upper-level system forming. If this happens and a surface feature can form underneath, we might have a developing tropical system toward the end of this week. But, this is highly uncertain at this point. Anything that does organize east of the Bahamas will be steered westward by the Bermuda high. That could lead to increased, unsettled weather over the northern Bahamas much of this week, then over Florida by this coming weekend. So, residents and visitors to Florida and the northern Bahamas should stay informed about this area of unsettled weather east of the northern Bahamas.
Source From Al & Mike News http://alandmike.wordpress.com